What Is EV Betting and How Does It Work?

In this guide:

EV betting—short for expected value betting—is a sports betting strategy that uses maths and probability to identify bets that have a long-term edge. Unlike regular punting, which relies on gut feeling, EV betting relies on numbers, odds, and data. The goal? To make consistent profits over time by only placing bets with a positive expected value.

Whether you’re into AFL, NRL, NBA, UFC or horse racing, understanding EV is a game-changer. It’s the core concept behind all profitable sports betting strategies, including arbitrage, matched betting, and value betting. And in this guide, we’ll break it down in simple terms—no PhD in maths required.

What Is EV in Betting?

In betting, EV stands for expected value. It’s a calculation that tells you how much you can expect to win or lose, on average, per bet. If a bet has a positive EV (+EV), it means that over the long run, you’ll make money. If a bet has negative EV (-EV), you’ll lose money in the long run—even if you win some bets here and there.

Think of EV as the profitability score of a bet. High EV = good. Low or negative EV = bad.

How Expected Value Works

Every bet you place has two key ingredients:

  • 🔢 The odds being offered
  • 📊 The true probability of the event happening

Bookmakers try to set odds that reflect the actual probabilities—plus a profit margin. But they don’t always get it right. Sometimes, due to sharp punters, market movement, or promotional pricing, the odds will drift and you’ll find a situation where the odds offered are better than the actual chance of it happening. That’s when a bet becomes +EV.

How to Calculate Expected Value

Here’s the formula for EV in betting:

EV = (Probability of Winning × Amount Won per Bet) - (Probability of Losing × Amount Lost per Bet)

Let’s run through an example:

You bet $100 on a market at 2.50 odds. You believe the actual chance of the outcome is 45%.

  • Win: 0.45 × $150 = $67.50 (profit)
  • Lose: 0.55 × $100 = $55 (loss)

EV = $67.50 - $55 = $12.50

This bet has a +$12.50 expected value per $100 stake. That’s +12.5% EV.

Why EV Matters in Sports Betting

Most people bet for fun or on instinct. They back their team, follow a tip, or chase a feeling. But profitable bettors think differently. They treat betting like investing: every bet must have an edge. That edge is the expected value.

  • ✅ Measure the quality of a bet
  • ✅ Stay disciplined and avoid gambling emotion
  • ✅ Scale a strategy over hundreds or thousands of bets
  • ✅ Beat the bookie with math—not luck

Positive EV vs Negative EV

Type Description Outcome Over Time
Positive EV (+EV) Odds better than true probability Profit
Negative EV (-EV) Odds worse than true probability Loss

Bookmakers live on negative EV bets. That’s their entire business model. Punters who bet without calculating EV are handing money to the bookie over time.

Real-World Examples of EV Betting

Example 1: AFL Market Drift

Say Richmond are paying $2.30 to win against Collingwood. You calculate they have a 48% chance to win. EV = (0.48 × 1.30) - (0.52 × 1.00) = +10.4%.

Example 2: Boosted Odds

You see a promo offering boosted odds of $3.00 on a team you rate as a 40% chance. EV = (0.40 × 2.00) - (0.60 × 1.00) = +20%.

Example 3: Lay Betting on an Exchange

Backing an outcome on one site and laying it on Betfair can sometimes create +EV if you find mismatched odds and low commissions.

Using Software to Find EV Bets

Manually calculating EV for every market is time-consuming. That’s where EV betting software comes in. These tools scan thousands of markets, calculate true odds using consensus lines, and flag +EV opportunities.

  • 📈 EV % calculations
  • 📉 No-vig odds estimates
  • 🧠 Filters by sport, bookmaker, market type
  • 🧮 Calculators and hedge tools
  • 📢 Instant alerts

Bankroll Management for EV Betting

Even if you're placing +EV bets, short-term variance can wipe you out if you're overbetting. The key is to stake sensibly and stay in the game long enough for the EV to play out.

A common method is the Kelly Criterion. For most bettors, a flat staking strategy (e.g. 1–3% of bankroll per bet) is a good starting point.

Common Mistakes to Avoid

  • ❌ Betting on gut feel instead of value
  • ❌ Ignoring commission and juice when calculating EV
  • ❌ Overstaking—placing bets too large for your bankroll
  • ❌ Chasing losses when on a losing streak
  • ❌ Relying on one bookmaker without comparing prices
  • ❌ Misjudging true probability of outcomes

EV Betting in Different Sports

  • AFL/NRL: Line/total movement early in the week
  • NBA: Player props and alternate lines
  • UFC: Sharp money and public bias create EV
  • Horse Racing: Look for promos and overlays
  • Soccer: Draw markets are often +EV

How EV Bettors Think

  • 🎯 Focused on long-term ROI
  • 📊 Emotionless—value is value
  • 🧠 Learning constantly
  • 🔍 Spending more time finding bets than placing them

FAQs About EV Betting

What is EV in betting?

Expected value. It’s how much you expect to win/lose per bet over time.

What is a good EV percentage?

+2% and up is decent. +5–15% is elite.

Is EV betting legal?

Yes, it’s just placing smart bets.

How is it different from arbitrage?

Arbitrage locks in guaranteed profit. EV bets are profitable long term, not always immediately.

Is EV betting the same as matched betting?

They’re cousins. Matched betting uses promos; EV bets rely on odds mispricing.

Final Thoughts

EV betting is how professional bettors make consistent profit. It’s maths, not luck. And if you follow the numbers, stay disciplined, and avoid chasing losses—you can do it too.

Explore our tools to start your EV betting journey today.